Friday, March 26, 2010

Q&A: North Korea nuclear talks

Satellite image of Yongbyon plant, North Korea (2002)
North Korea has stopped the UN monitoring its nuclear plant

The international community has been pressing North Korea to return to six-nation talks on ending its nuclear programme.

Pyongyang pulled out of the talks in April following widespread condemnation of a long-range missile launch.

International pressure grew following a nuclear test in May - which drew UN sanctions and further missile tests.

Now North Korea is signalling it may be willing to return to talks on its nuclear programme.

What has led to North Korea's seeming change of attitude?

Some analysts say North Korea is feeling the pinch of the UN Security Council sanctions that were passed in June, and is making conciliatory moves in an effort to have them lessened.

The sanctions include the inspection of North Korean ships, a wider ban on arms sales and other financial measures. They were supported by China, North Korea's main ally and trading partner.

North Korea appears to have moved from a posture of negotiation to confrontation - directly challenging the policies of the US and South Korean administrations - and back again.

The US has said it is ready to engage with North Korea but that bilateral talks can only be a precursor to a return to the six-party process - also involving South Korea, China, Japan and Russia.

But given Pyongyang's isolation, the diplomatic tools available to try to limit its behaviour are restricted.

Some analysts say the impoverished and isolated communist regime will never completely surrender its atomic capability as it has few other cards to play.

What led to the recent stand-off?

Pyongyang was enraged when the UN Security Council condemned its long-range rocket launch in April and tightened existing sanctions.

The North insisted it had put a communications satellite into orbit, but many governments saw the launch as a thinly disguised test of Taepodong-2 long-range missile technology, aimed at putting parts of the US within North Korea's reach.

North Korea is forbidden from pursuing this kind of technology by a UN resolution passed in 2006.

In response to the UN criticism, Pyongyang expelled international nuclear monitors and left the long-running six-nation disarmament talks - which were aimed at convincing it to give up its nuclear programme in exchange for aid.

Then came the North's announcement in September that it had entered the final phase of uranium enrichment and that it was continuing to weaponise plutonium.

Uranium enrichment would give Pyongyang a second way to make a nuclear bomb.

What is China's position?

China is North Korea's biggest trading partner and is the country which holds the greatest sway over the secretive Pyongyang regime.

Earlier this year China agreed to tougher international sanctions against the North - with the Chinese ambassador at the UN, Zhang Yesui, saying they showed the "firm opposition" of the world to North Korea's nuclear ambitions.

But analysts say China has too much at stake to entirely withdraw its support; it sees the North as a strategic buffer against US military and allied forces in the region.

It also fears that a regime collapse could lead to an uncontrolled influx of refugees across its shared border.

Where does South Korea stand?

Inter-Korean relations have also become fraught since South Korean President Lee Myung-bak took office.

The conservative leader has insisted there would be no further unconditional economic aid for the North, and that any concessions depended on the North's co-operation on denuclearisation.

This position was repeated in September when Mr Lee offered North Korea a "grand bargain" - giving up its nuclear plans in exchange for aid and security guarantees.

Why does the issue of North Korea's nuclear capability matter so much?

The two Koreas remain technically at war, since no peace treaty was signed after the 1950-53 Korean conflict.

North Korea has a million-strong army. The North-South border is one of the most heavily militarised in the world.

The nuclear test in May has reignited debate in Japan on allowing its military the option to launch a pre-emptive strike if it fears a missile attack.

It could also trigger the risk of an East Asian arms race, as countries like Japan, South Korea and Taiwan consider whether to go nuclear as well.

Could North Korea drop a nuclear bomb now?

North Korea is not thought to have yet developed a ballistic missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead, experts say.

But the second nuclear test added to suspicions that the North is moving closer to becoming a fully fledged nuclear-armed state.

The country is believed to have enough plutonium to make about six bombs.

0 comments:

Post a Comment

 
Design by Wordpress Theme | Bloggerized by Free Blogger Templates | coupon codes